US Coffee Tariffs? Just the Beginning of the End (of an Era)

On April 2nd, the Trump administration announced the implementation of new tariffs across the globe, including—obviously—coffee-producing countries. The reaction was immediate: alarmist headlines, indignant tweets, memes about $15 cappuccinos.

But if you're in the coffee business, you should be asking yourself a more serious question: what if this isn't an isolated event, but a clear signal that the "old market" is dead?

Spoiler: it is.

Coffee prices will never return to what they once were. And no, it's not just because of the tariffs.

The numbers don't lie: a brutal context

First, let's get the facts straight. According to the data, these tariffs will cause price increases of 10-35% for both green and roasted coffee in the United States. Most producing countries will face a 10% tariff, but some countries will encounter more dramatic situations:

These tariffs apply from April 5, 2025, creating a clear fracture in the market. Even though we're talking about rules for the American market, there will obviously be repercussions throughout the global economy.

Think about the producers who are already fighting daily to survive and defend their rights, not to mention climate-related problems. Think about companies exporting coffee to the US that will see their sales decline. In short, this trade war initiated by Trump is just another signal that we're facing a new era.

The illusion of returning to normal

We're still trapped in a collective illusion: that prices must eventually drop. That it's just a matter of waiting for the right moment to "buy better."

The problem is that moment will never come. Because this isn't a fluctuation, it's a paradigm shift.

Climate change, financial speculation, fragile supply chains, deepening inequalities at origin, trade wars, geopolitical instability... every factor is pushing in the same direction: substance is becoming rarer and therefore more expensive.

And in the coffee world, "substance" means: real quality, solid relationships, dignified work, concrete sustainability.

If you continue to seek margin by squeezing prices, you're only postponing the inevitable. And, what's worse, you're complicit in a system that has prospered for decades through the exploitation of entire communities.

Let's be clear: behind every dirt-cheap coffee bean, there's often child labor, land expropriation, and fundamental human rights violations. Multinationals like Nestlé and Neumann have built empires on the pain of coffee growers, and you who always seek the lowest price are silently complicit.

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This ERA must end. Not only because it's economically unsustainable, but because it's morally unacceptable.

The reality no one wants to see

Coffee futures will continue to fluctuate, certainly. There will still be days when the price drops and someone will rejoice as if they've won the lottery. But these movements will become increasingly disconnected from the reality on the ground.

The truth is that producing good coffee is becoming a titanic endeavor. Irregular temperatures are devastating entire harvests, erasing years of work in just a few days. Labor costs in producing countries are (rightfully) increasing, because those who harvest coffee also deserve a dignified life. Global logistics has become a nightmare of unpredictable costs and chronic delays. Extreme climate events are no longer the exception but the rule to contend with every season.

And while all this is happening, what is most of the industry doing? Continuing to seek the cheapest coffee possible, as if nothing were changing. As if this were just a difficult moment to overcome before returning to "normal."

It's like betting on Blockbuster stocks while Netflix was emerging. It's like investing in phone booths at the dawn of the smartphone era. It's stubbornly looking backward while the future is already overwhelming you.

The future belongs to builders, not buyers

The future isn't made for those who buy well. It's made for those who build well.

In a rapidly changing world, if you're an evolved coffee entrepreneur, you accept the challenge of change and transform it into opportunity. You don't wait for the system to adapt to you; you create your own system.

A strategic leap is needed, and it can't be postponed any longer. You must stop obsessively seeking the lowest price and instead start building perceived value that justifies higher prices. You need to invest in truly sustainable innovation and customer experiences, because it's clear that the product alone is no longer enough to differentiate yourself. It's time to embrace excellence not as a marketing slogan, but as the only concrete strategy to survive in an increasingly polarized market.

And above all, it's time you stop exploiting terms like "environmental and social sustainability" to sell products stained with blood. Consumers are becoming more aware, and sooner or later this hypocrisy will be unmasked.

Prices will rise. Fortunately. Because only by affecting people's wallets can you break through and create more value. But you must have the courage to change your mindset, to escape the toxic spiral of the lowest price, to bet on a different future.

Polarization is already here (and you can use it to your advantage)

Look at what's happening in the market: the middle range is disappearing.

On one side, commodity coffee is becoming more and more commoditized. On the other, quality coffee is increasingly perceived as such. This isn't a crisis. It's an opportunity for those who know where to position themselves.

If you want to compete on price, prepare for a war that's lost from the start. If instead you choose to compete on value, there's still a blue ocean to explore.

Consumers are changing. They're becoming more aware, more demanding, more willing to pay for authentic experiences. They're no longer just looking for a product; they're seeking stories, emotions, meaning. And this is exactly what you can offer if you're an evolved entrepreneur.

The economic war that Trump inaugurated on April 2 is just one of many factors demonstrating how we're moving toward a new era: an era where substance will be increasingly rare and will have tremendous value amid a sea of appearances. If you don't understand this now, you'll understand it when it's too late.

Practical actions, not complaints

There are several concrete actions you can take immediately. You can start by preparing your company, your customers, and your partners for further price increases, because they will come, whether you like it or not. You can actively seek collaborations within the industry, engage with other roasters, share experiences and solutions instead of competing on price. You can develop a completely new sourcing strategy, designed specifically for this evolving scenario.

But the truth is that none of these actions will work if you don't first change your mindset. It's not about "surviving" tariffs or the next crisis. It's about reinventing your business to thrive in a completely new world.

But where can you start?

Now more than ever, you need vision, awareness, and strategy. If you also see beyond the product and want to build a business capable of adapting and thriving, then it's time to engage with other entrepreneurs who think like you.

That's why I've created a new Facebook group: "Profit Secrets for Coffee Roasters," an exclusive space for sharing concrete strategies and discussing with other coffee professionals how to evolve our businesses in this new scenario.

It's not a group for those seeking shortcuts or wanting to continue complaining about the market. It's for those who have decided to take their destiny into their own hands.

👉🏻 Join now: "Profit Secrets for Coffee Roasters

PS: In the coming days, I'll be sharing exclusive strategies in the group that I'm testing with my clients to increase perceived value without losing margin. Don't miss them.