How to deal with exploding coffee prices - the complete guide
what to do before it's too late
COFFEE MARKETGROWTH
Coffee prices are out of control, and if you don't know how to react now, you risk being subjected to choices you didn't make yourself. Being a coffee entrepreneur means, especially during this period, staying "on top of things" as they say. You need to follow the markets, know how to read charts, make important decisions, and be resilient to face the continuous challenges that present themselves every day. I know, it's not easy at all.
But don't worry: with this you'll know how to:
Read and understand market charts without being a trader.
Feel more confident in making concrete decisions today without getting overwhelmed by the market.
Feel more clear-headed and strategic, instead of paralyzed by uncertainty.
I know that during this period, many people are giving you the usual solutions that actually create even more doubts: Build inventory at the lowest possible price to better manage margins. If you need to purchase now, be careful and consider hedging solutions or long-term contracts. Communicate well to end customers the real value of coffee and the reasons behind certain price increases.
Sure! And I would add: "No shit!"
Easy to say we should build inventory... but how do you do that if there's no money?
Of course, better contracts would help... but how do you find the right suppliers?
We need to communicate value to customers... but where do I find the time and resources?
I, too, am first and foremost a coffee roaster, and I'm tired of the "passive" mentality in this industry. I was tired of having to "hope" that everything would go back to how it was before, I was tired of the "We've always done it this way." Enough!
"Solutions are useless if you don't explain the conditions that make them applicable"
These movements aren't normal. And indeed, the market has begun to correct itself. But pay attention:
the price isn't crashing. It has just settled around $3.90, a sign that the market is "catching its breath," not running away. And here comes the first key point I want to share with you.
Point #1: The technical support level of $3.375
This was the historical maximum of 1977, and today it has become a support base. Translated: as long as we stay above this level, the market is still in a bullish phase, even if less extreme.
This means that those waiting for a crash to buy "when it costs less" might wait in vain and those who need to make decisions now must do so with clarity: these prices could last longer than we think.
Over the years, I've chosen to go deeper, study the markets, understand global mechanisms, take FULL responsibility for my choices, and above all, be useful to others. And this is exactly what I want to do with this brief guide, so I recommend you read it all the way through.
I believe every coffee entrepreneur deserves a strategy that matches their courage, and that real solutions only come when we stop settling for easy answers. If you're reading this article, it's because you too feel it's time to raise the bar. And I'm here to help you do just that.
Technical analysis explained simply, but thought-provoking
You don't need to be a trader or spend your days in front of charts to understand one thing: "Coffee prices have risen too high, too fast"
By February 2025, it exceeded $4.29 per pound, a level never reached before in history. You should know that the previous record dated back to 1977, over 40 years ago. It's a bit like an old economy car that never went over 150, suddenly shooting up to 300. It doesn't last, and it's not normal.
C Coffee chart TF daily, 6 months - Source: Barchart.com
Point #2: The futures curve predicts a decline... but it's not the truth
Looking at the prices of future contracts (until 2027), the market "expects" coffee to return to around $2.60/pound.
Yes, I know: it seems like good news.
But I remind you of one thing: that curve is not a prophecy.
It's just a projection based on how operators are hedging today.
And history teaches us that just one more frost in Brazil, or another logistics crisis, and everything changes.
Point #3: The market isn't just numbers, it's psychology
When a price rises too much, the natural reaction is to think "it will drop soon." But if the correction is superficial and then prices consolidate at a high level, then the market is building a new equilibrium.
And in this case, it's better to be prepared than to hope.
Coffee prices are still high, but not out of control.
The charts tell us that we're not in a bubble, but in a consolidation phase.
Futures discount a decline, but the real world is made of weather, tariffs, diseases, and actual consumption.
And that's where we need to look.
Backwardation chart - Source: Barchart.com
Predictions: What will really happen in the coming months (in my opinion)
Now that we've seen what the charts say, I want to take you a bit deeper. Because reading technical signals is useful, but interpreting the market reality is another thing. And this is where experience comes into play. Today everyone is talking about:
Increasing supply,
Return to normal weather conditions,
Prices retreating to "sustainable" levels.
Okay, but I'll tell you one thing: don't take it for granted.
1. Production costs aren't decreasing (and won't decrease soon)
Plantations don't work like a switch. It's not enough to "decide" to produce more to increase supply in a few months. It takes years, investments, and favorable conditions. And in the meantime?
Fertilizer costs remain high.
Energy continues to weigh heavily.
Agricultural infrastructure in many countries is still fragile.
So even if the price rises, margins for producers aren't guaranteed. And this slows down the increase in supply that the market "expects."
2. Consumption isn't declining (on the contrary)
Despite everything — inflation, crisis, rising costs — global coffee demand is holding strong.
For a very simple reason: coffee isn't just a beverage. It's a social ritual, a habit, a personal moment. In many countries, volumes aren't decreasing, they're shifting. Those who stop drinking specialty coffee go back to blends. Those who no longer go to cafés buy capsules. But they still consume. This means that the market has strength, and if the price stays high, it could hold for a long time.
3. Big companies are already preparing
While many entrepreneurs are waiting for prices to "fix themselves," multinationals are:
Reformulating blends to lower perceived costs.
Working on communication to justify the high price.
Shifting part of their focus to branding and customer experience.
They're not waiting for the market. They're adapting their business. And those who don't do it now risk falling behind when the market truly stabilizes.
This is what I advise you not to underestimate:
Price decreases aren't guaranteed.
Costs remain high, consumption is steady, big players are moving.
The biggest risk today isn't making the wrong forecast but...
Not having a strategy.
Solutions (beyond the usual useless advice)
Now that you understand what's happening, there's only one question: "Okay, but what do I do today?"
I won't give you the usual platitudes. I'll present you with three real scenarios, with uncomfortable questions and strategic answers.
1. Want to build inventory? Start with an uncomfortable question: how free are you to choose?
Building inventory today isn't a technical decision. It's a matter of company structure. There are entrepreneurs who would like to buy now, but don't have access to credit.
Others who have to pay for supplies in advance. Still others who have liquidity but no strategy. The right question isn't "can I build inventory?" It's:
"What do I need to change in my management to put myself in a position where I can choose?"
And this requires a different kind of work:
Having real visibility of your cash flow (not just "how much is in the bank")
Understanding how to negotiate extensions, collaborations, shared orders
Building more transparent dialogue with your accountant or financial advisor
Having at least a 3-6 month cost projection
If you can't answer these questions today, that's okay. But don't ignore them. Because you're not just in an emergency when prices rise. You're in an emergency when you have no room to maneuver.
2. Want better contracts? Get out of the comfortable supplier logic.
The "historical supplier" that saves you the effort of thinking... has become a risk. Today you need a diversified supplier portfolio. Not to betray those who have always followed you, but to regain bargaining power, information, and options.
Want better suppliers?
Expand your network, attend trade shows, get in touch with smaller and more flexible entities
Ask yourself new questions: "What does this supplier know about the market that I don't?"
And demand strategic relationships, not just updated price lists
Laziness is no longer an option. Having only one supplier today is like having only one sales channel: a trap.
3. Want to communicate well? Start studying. And put your face on it. Many think that communicating well means advertising, commercials, glossy videos. Wrong. That approach, today, risks being counterproductive.
The truth is this:
You can no longer afford to delegate all marketing if you don't have the slightest idea what it's about
The evolved entrepreneur studies, learns, tries. Also (and especially) in communication
And the smaller your company, the more you need to put your face on it
Start like this:
Write a personal post on LinkedIn or a monthly newsletter
Tell why you do what you do
Then explain how you do it, and only after that what you offer
(Yes, in this order: why → how → what)
Most coffee companies only communicate the WHAT.
It's a huge mistake, especially in difficult times. Those who change their approach today will have an unfair advantage over the competition tomorrow. Miraculous solutions aren't needed. What's needed is a change in vision, energy, approach. And above all: you need to start.
Mistakes: Here's what NOT to do under any circumstances
I've explained what's happening, what to do... now let's talk about what to avoid at all costs, even (especially) if it seems logical or prudent.
"It's not the market that hurts you. It's the wrong choices. Or the absence of choices."
Sometimes it's not what you do... but what you DON'T DO that gets you into trouble.
Here are 4 mistakes I see every day that, if you continue to make them, will cost you much more than a few cents per kilo.
1. Waiting for the price to return to "normal"
The "normal" price no longer exists. The market has changed. The context has changed. Customers have changed. Waiting for everything to go back to how it was is like standing still in the middle of the highway hoping that cars will stop.
The market waits for no one.
2. Thinking that "the customer doesn't understand anyway"
This is self-sabotage disguised as cleverness. Customers understand much more than you think, but only if you explain it well. Don't underestimate their intelligence. Underestimate your communication instead. If you don't communicate, the customer only thinks: "they're just raising prices." And they look for alternatives.
3. Delegating everything because "it's not your job"
Saying "it's not my job" today is no longer an acceptable alibi. Maybe you're not an expert in finance, marketing, or strategies... but you're an entrepreneur. And an evolved entrepreneur can no longer ignore the pillars of their business.
Study. Compare. Make mistakes. But don't stay out of the game. Because the real trap is delegating without understanding.
Don't wait.
Don't underestimate the customer.
Don't give up the steering wheel of your business.
The coffee world is changing. And this can be your biggest growth opportunity, if you're willing to take that extra step that others will never take.
4. Saying (or thinking) "We've always done it this way"
It's the most dangerous phrase in our industry. A phrase that has sunk companies, slowed innovations, blocked brilliant minds. Today it's not those who have always done it this way who win, it's those who have the courage to change before others.
Every time you think it, stop.
Ask yourself: "Am I doing this because it really works... or because I'm afraid to change?"
Laziness is no longer an option (again).
Now you know. The market is complicated, but you're not without weapons. The charts tell a story, but you decide the next chapter. You can wait, delegate, hope that something changes. Or you can raise the bar, change your approach, become more strategic. No one can do it for you. But if you've read this far, it's because you know it's time to move. Bring these tips to your company and share them with your team or your customers, do it. And if you want to talk to me directly, write to me.
But above all: don't stand still.
Because the future of coffee isn't decided by the market. It's decided by people who today have the courage to make better choices.