Green coffee prices are rising, and so should you

If you’ve been paying attention, you’ve noticed something big happening in the coffee world. Prices are skyrocketing, and no, it’s not just a seasonal hiccup. Last week, the Arabica futures market closed at 279.40 cents—the highest level in over 13 years—while Robusta hit $4,777, a staggering 3.1% increase in just one day.

Meanwhile, the much-discussed European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has been delayed by another year. At first glance, this might seem like a temporary reprieve, but the reality is far more complex—and less comforting.

So, what’s driving this upward trend, and how should businesses like yours respond? Let’s break it down.

Which are the factors behind the price surge?

1. Brazil’s catastrophic crop forecasts

Two major reports recently painted a bleak picture for the Brazilian harvest:

• Arabica production is estimated at 40 million bags.
• Robusta production is projected at just 25 million bags.

Combined, these figures sent shockwaves through the markets, fueling fears of scarcity and pushing futures higher.

2. Market strategy from producing countries

Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee producers, have a vested interest in keeping prices high. These nations understand the power of perception, leveraging reports and market timing to ensure a steady upward trajectory.

3. The Delayed EUDR

The postponement of the EUDR might seem like a breather, but in reality, it adds to market instability. The looming compliance requirements, coupled with the uncertainty of implementation, create a perfect storm for speculative price hikes.

US Coffee C Futures - Mar 25 (KCH5) - Source: investing.com

Here’s why the smartest businesses don’t lower prices—they elevate their game.

• Stability is Key: In a volatile market, your customers crave reliability. Offer consistent quality and service, and they’ll stay loyal.

• Excellence Over Everything: From marketing to operations, every aspect of your business should reflect a commitment to being the best. Customers will pay more for that level of expertise.

• Play the Long Game: This isn’t just about surviving today’s challenges—it’s about thriving tomorrow. Build a business model that isn’t dependent on volatile commodity prices but on the value you provide to your clients.


To succeed in this environment, you need to grow—both as a professional and as a person. That means:

• Studying the trends and understanding what they mean for your business.
• Experimenting with new strategies and learning from the outcomes.
• Continuously improving every aspect of your operations, from customer experience to financial planning.

This is how you ensure your business isn’t just another player in the game—it’s a game-changer.

The coffee market is a complex and ever-changing landscape. But for those willing to innovate, adapt, and commit to excellence, it’s also full of opportunities.

EU consumption is the cause of around 10% of global deforestation © adamikarl / Adobe Stock

What does this mean for you?

As a small business, it’s easy to feel powerless in the face of global market dynamics. But here’s the good news: you don’t have to play the same game as the big players. Competing on price is a losing battle. Instead, focus on what truly sets you apart—value.

The path forward: "Shift from price to value