The real reason why the price of green coffee will rise that no one is talking about

Let's start by saying one thing: the coffee market is a minefield, and I'm not talking about the usual price fluctuations or climate cycles that disrupt production. There's something deeper and more complex at play, something many have yet to grasp. And, incredibly, few (if any) are talking about it. So, here we are to unveil the mystery.

Climate change has already severely tested coffee growers, making harvests unpredictable and often disappointing. Add to this the geopolitical issues that destabilize supply chains and financial flows, and it's clear the market is undergoing a total transformation. However, there's another crucial, almost underrated factor: the rise of a new major player in the coffee market.

This player is called China: the silent giant of coffee.

Yes, that's right. China, traditionally famous for tea, is rapidly climbing the ranks as a coffee importer.

Let's consider some facts: China has become the main destination for Brazilian agricultural exports, with sales reaching a record $104 billion in 2023 alone. And that's not all: the Brazilian government has secured a $500 million deal to promote Brazilian coffee in the largest coffee chain in China.

And the United States? If we're talking about China, we can't ignore America!

Coffee farmer Li Faneng and wife Luo Dafeng pick coffee cherries in the fields of Nanping Town, Pu'er City, Yunnan Province.

Here's what I see on the horizon: “The new normal”

And here we reach the crucial point, the real crux of the matter. In the long run (but not too long), the price of green coffee will rise. Period. And it won't return to previous levels. Indeed, we could consider this the new standard.

Why? Because demand isn't just higher; it's more strategic, more interconnected with global geopolitical and financial dynamics.

I feel compelled to tell my fellow roasters: don't hope for a return to normal. This is the new normal. This is just the beginning of a new era: green coffee will be precious and especially scarce for us Europeans.

So, don't say I didn't warn you. The future is now, and someone in China has already started writing it... while sipping a cup of tea, maybe.

Matteo Borea

Photo: Bryon Lipponcott for YCT

Ah, the United States, always contending for the top spot with the EU as the world's largest coffee consumers. Yet, despite having imported $8.3 billion worth of coffee in 2023, the increasingly close relationship between Brazil and China is a tangible threat.

Why? Because China has jumped from 20th to 6th place among the largest buyers of Brazilian coffee in just two years.

This, in my humble opinion, means only one thing:

The implications are many, and change is inevitable.

But let's see together what all this means for the coffee market:

1. Shift in power dynamics
China's growing influence will reduce the bargaining power of traditional buyers like the United States and the EU. A new world order of coffee, so to speak.

2. Price pressure
Increasing Chinese demand, combined with climate-related production challenges, will keep coffee prices high in the medium to long term. It's not a matter of "if," but "when."

3. Supply chain transformation
Chinese investments will accelerate the modernization and vertical integration of coffee production in Brazil and other producing countries.

4. Geopolitics
The commercial ties between China and Brazil will have repercussions on international relations, particularly with the United States. It's a chess game we're just beginning to see.

5. Opportunities for farmers
Despite the challenges, Chinese interest could bring the necessary capital and know-how to tackle climate and production difficulties. A breath of fresh air for many growers.

6. Evolution of consumption
The rapid growth of the Chinese coffee market, driven by young consumers, will influence global consumption and production trends.

“Less coffee for other major importers, United States and Europe”

Photo: Bryon Lipponcott for YCT